A new pattern and trend have appeared in the continuous evolvement of Sino-U.S. ties in recent years.

The new pattern refers to the phenomenon that tensions escalate between the two countries immediately after they have engaged in dialogue, while the new trend refers to the fact that Sino-U.S. relations are mired in a slump.

Dr. David M. Lampton, director of SAIS-China and China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, believes relations are reaching a "tipping point," because "some critical underlying supports for predominantly positive U.S.-China ties" are eroding, and more and more people on both sides, especially the elites, regard the other country as the main challenger or an obstacle to the advancement of their own country.

Dr. Lampton's view is now being shared by an increasing number of scholars. However, they should also understand that the two countries are seeking more opportunities for cooperation on the crucial climate issue, bilateral investment agreement negotiations, negotiations on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, maintaining the security of maritime shipping lane, fighting corruption and responding to cross-border endemic diseases.

Despite mounting friction, China and the U.S. will not start a war against each other, because the cost is too high given their mutual independence, and they can always find other means to safeguard their own interests.

With rising interest in the current international order, China will not seek to challenge it. China is not seeking to make the Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank, which it took the lead to establish last year, different from other international financial agencies; certainly, it has no intention to replace the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund. The AIIB is intended to supplement the current international financial order, not become a replacement.

The deeper China merges into the current international order, the more common interests it shares with the U.S. in safeguarding that particular order.

China's market reform, opening up, judicial reform and struggle against corruption are also bridging the diverging gap with the U.S., and laying a solid foundation for future cooperation.

China intends to do more to fulfill its international responsibility, and improve the current international order for common good. It has more common interests with the U.S. than ever before in defending the international free-trade system, curbing MDW proliferation and safeguarding cyber security. Neither side has enough reasons to deem the other an enemy state.

The South China Sea issue is a touchstone of China's ambitions as well U.S. attitudes towards China. Many Americans believe the two countries are in a "Thucydides Trap," as defined by the 5th Century BCE Athenian historian, that a declining old power will necessarily confront a rising power. Either side thus interprets the other side from a negative angle, and this creates a vicious cycle.

China is the poorest ever second largest economy in the world since the World War II. China's complicated national conditions and huge economic size creates considerable difficulty for the U.S. to correctly understand and define China's identity.

China's interests are in line with the developing countries in most cases. However, it is often under U.S. pressure to act according to the standards of developed economies, especially on the climate issue.

The international community looks forward to knowing China's true strategic intention. Yet, when China cannot convey this in a convincing manner, mutual suspicion and confrontation become inevitable.

China needs a stable and peaceful environment to rise more than ever before. It must make more efforts to explain its foreign policies in a comprehensible way to the U.S., so as to minimize American misjudgments and suspicion.

The U.S. needs to get used to China's rise, which has been underway for more than 30 years and has definitely benefited the U.S., while giving China more space to play its role.

Either side should know the limits of its power when it comes to dealing with the other side. The lesson from the Vietnam War and the second Gulf War clearly indicate the limits of U.S. power. The lesson still applies today. When either side goes beyond the limits of its power, it is putting its own interests at risk in ways it cannot control.

Jia Qingguo is a member of the International Consultative Committee with the Charhar Institute, and a professor of International Relations College of Peking University.

The article was translated by Li Yang. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.

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